Geography 2050 is a symposium to gather the brightest thinkers that live and breathe geography, either as a core business or a peripheral part of their core expertise, and discuss the potential markets, changes, and potential for where we’ll be in the field of geography by the year 2050.
Last year we attended the first annual event held in New York City and hosted by the American Geographical Society. Several hundred geography experts from academia, business, government, and military gathered at Columbia University’s gorgeous Low Memorial Library to discuss where the geospatial sciences were headed in the next 35 years. The theme of the event was on mounting “an expedition to the future”, and over the 2 days an impressive number of topics were posed, demonstrated, and debated around things like data and the “Internet of things”, energy sustainability, sociocultural geography, health care, and climate change — a full plate of topics to hit over the course of 2 days of discussion.
The Trend to urbanization
A salient thread that emerged from all of last year’s discussions was urbanization and the inevitable and endless migration of people to cities. The concentration of humanity in some of the world’s megacities is astounding and increasing, which over the course of the next few decades will result in massive change in how we build infrastructure, provide public services for these super-concentrations of people, and maintain (or hopefully increase) quality of life. This is the theme of this year’s event: “Exploring Our Future in an Urbanized World”.
I wanted to touch on a few subjects I’m looking forward to discussing, but first let’s ponder a few staggering statistics to put the problem in perspective:
- China has 35 cities with populations over 3 million — the United States has 2
- Bangladesh’s population is half that of the United States, but it’s the size of Iowa
- Tokyo–Yokohama is a megacity with a population of 37 million, equal the entire state of California (a real-life version of the Sprawl)
And these are numbers we’ve already reached. Pondering where we’ll be in 35 years is hard to imagine.
The Changing nature of the service economy
As people cram together in such enormous numbers in growing megacities, it’s interesting to imagine how the balance between the service economy and manufacturing will evolve to provide livelihood and services for citizens. We regularly associate the service and “knowledge work” economies with first world cities like New York, London, Paris, or Sydney, but as world cities grow in density and affluence, the demand for the same first world services we have an abundance of in the US grows. I read recently that Uber is now available in cities like Amman, Lagos, Bogotá, and Wuhan, to name a few — not cities you’d typically associate with luxury services like Uber, but it’s demonstrative of the point: as cities and economies grow, the nature of the dynamics shift.
Supply aggregation
Ben Thompson recently wrote a series of articles culminating in what he calls aggregation theory addressing significant market changes. These changes have emerged alongside the expansion of the Internet and the rise of web-based services globally.
Traditional companies historically integrated backward into supply to distribute goods and services more efficiently to their customers. However, the Internet has reduced distribution costs to nearly zero, allowing companies to integrate forward instead. This approach modularizes the supply of goods and services while aggregating distribution directly to customers at scale.
Thompson’s theory focuses primarily on technology companies and deliverables like Netflix, Google, and Facebook. However, its most tangible applications are seen in how the Internet has expanded the availability of physical goods and services. Examples such as Uber and Airbnb demonstrate how web-based platforms have made these offerings more accessible worldwide.
Modularized services
Where taxis and hotels once integrated supply chains like fleets or vacant rooms, Uber and Airbnb took another path. By modularizing supply—individual drivers and room providers—they shifted control to customers through apps and the Internet. This approach allows them to manage the end-user relationship while decentralizing the supply chain for greater efficiency.
With urban expansion over the coming decades, this shift will have significant implications for growing global cities. By increasing supply, these services reduce costs for previously “luxury” offerings, making them more accessible to larger populations. As cities grow in population, service jobs will need to provide income while maintaining or improving quality of life.
The Internet has revolutionized how we communicate, share, and interact, but it’s also reshaping physical urban living. This intersection of technology and urbanization will play a crucial role in defining the future of cities worldwide.
What will cities look like?
Accommodating such massive urbanization growth will also naturally change the look and feel of cities in the near future. Horizontal compression requires people to be comfortable in closer quarters by more efficiently using the space, including building not only skyward (like Jeddah’s kilometer-tall Kingdom Tower), but also downward. In Wired magazine’s recent issue, there’s a fascinating piece on the future of cities highlighting some great examples of ongoing projects and designs to support this vast growth. The examples from Mecca are particularly impressive. Year over year the city sees more of the world’s Muslim’s making the pilgrimage for the Hajj, and the Saudi government is investing billions in infrastructure to support the enormous influx of people. Within a couple of years, Mecca will be home to the world’s 4th tallest building and the largest hotel on Earth.
Last year German photographer Michael Wolf produced a photo series called “The Architecture of Density” in which he published stunning photos of Hong Kong apartment buildings to demonstrate the close quarters people already live in there (pictured above). Imagine this level of density projected out to encompass a megaregion 6 times the size of New York, like China intends to build around Beijing, and it’s probably not a far cry from what urban China will actually look like in 2050.
Managing urbanization infrastructure in 35 years
Since we create tools to help people capture and utilize spatial information, this topic is highly relevant to us. Many of our users are actively involved in deploying, managing, and maintaining public infrastructure like pipes, wires, roads, bridges, and structures. As tens of millions of people continue to concentrate in cities worldwide, managing this infrastructure efficiently becomes increasingly critical.
The sheer scale of urban infrastructure demands public works organizations that can respond quickly to problems and keep cities functional. Agility will be key to ensuring water flows, streets stay clean, and lights remain operational in growing urban centers.
The “Internet of Things” (IoT) is now as much a buzzword in public works as it is in Silicon Valley. Discussions about connected trash bins, smart streetlights, and navigable parking spaces reflect the inevitability of these innovations. These systems could save billions in public sector expenses once implemented and scaled across cities.
However, widespread adoption of these technologies remains distant for most communities, except for the most forward-thinking ones. For the next decade or two, we’ll likely continue to rely on workers on the ground keeping cities running smoothly.
Looking ahead to Geo2050
I’m eager to see the diverse perspectives that participants at Geo2050 will contribute to the upcoming discussions. The packed schedule includes so many topics that it could easily fill two weeks of conversation.
In addition to previously mentioned topics, sessions will address human security, vertical farming, migration, resettlement, and climate change. This event promises to showcase voices and ideas covering many facets of geography’s future and emerging global challenges.