Guest blogger J Allard is CEO and Founder of Project 529 and a Core Team member of the Portland Police Bureau Bike Theft Task Force. This post was originally published May 18th on bikeportland.org.
No silver bullet to prevent bike theft
I’ve gotten smarter about bike theft after being victimized 3 years ago, and even more as we’ve developed and rolled out the 529 Garage. A common pattern as I speak to people is the desire for a silver bullet solution. Sorry fellow cyclists, there isn’t one.
Fact is, today’s bike thieves and fences are more organized, more dedicated and leveraging technology better than the communities they are attacking. To fight back, we’re going to have to step up our game, and I’m happy that here in Portland we’ve begun to with the formation of the Bike Theft Task Force.
One of my biggest learnings is how little data and research exists. I can’t think of any $400 million problem (annual, in the US alone) that has received as little focused attention as bike theft. Sure, there are a couple of general reports, but no deep studies on the problem that can offer much insight to the problem as we search for answers.
A common silver bullet offered is, “outlaw cable locks and bike theft will all but disappear.” Given that 90% of cables can be cut in less than 5 seconds with a $12 set of bolt cutters it’s hard to argue that cable locks are insufficient as a primary security device. But, are cable locks really the primary contributor to the 10+ bike thefts a day in our city?
Turning frustration into actionable insights
Frustrated by the lack of data and unwilling to accept assumptions, I decided to take action. I created a simple app to collect real data and uncover meaningful insights about bike security. Using Fulcrum from Spatial Networks, I quickly built the app without prior knowledge of their company. After reaching out by email, one of their founders and top engineers called me the same day. As fellow cyclists frustrated by theft, they felt excited about the project and offered full support and sponsorship.
The app is straightforward, allowing users to snap a photo and answer a few key questions. These questions include the bike’s manufacturer and type, what it’s locked to, and how it’s secured. Collecting data on a single bike takes about 30 seconds, and the app automatically records its location.
Over one weekend, I built the app and collected 529 samples across downtown and NW Portland. After analyzing about 100 samples, I identified a few emerging trends that challenged my initial assumptions. My misconceptions about bike security in Portland became apparent as I reviewed the collected data. Most people understood they should use U-locks but seemed unaware of how to use them correctly. While 529 samples gathered over one weekend in a small area lack strong statistical weight, patterns emerged. These trends suggest we should continue gathering data to better understand the situation and improve outcomes.
When I shared the initial findings with the Task Force, we agreed on the value of establishing a solid baseline. This baseline could guide our priorities, shape efforts, and later help test the impact of targeted programs. We’re also collaborating with the Portland Police Bureau to compare our data against theft reports and recovered bikes. By combining these insights, we aim to learn more about the root causes of this widespread issue.
How you can help
We need your help to collect more data. It only takes about 10 minutes to get up and running and less than a minute to record a bike. We currently have about a dozen folks collecting data and over 1,600 samples. Drop a note to bikecensus@project529.com and help us collect 3,000 samples by the end of May.
Register your bike, lock it right and report suspicious activity to the Portland Police.